Publications

Working Papers

• Inference on Counterfactual Distributions using Martingale Posteriors
  Gregor Steiner, Mark Steel
  [arXiv, Code]
• Scalable Multivariate Martingale Posteriors
  Gregor Steiner, David Huk, Mark Steel
  The 9th Workshop on Tractable Probabilistic Modeling @ UAI 2026
  [OpenReview, Code]

Peer-reviewed Publications

• Possibilistic Instrumental Variable Regression with Potentially Invalid Instruments
  Gregor Steiner, Jeremie Houssineau, Mark Steel
  Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR 337:6537–6553, 2026
  [Proceedings, arXiv, Code]
• Bayesian Model Averaging in Causal Instrumental Variable Models
  Gregor Steiner, Mark Steel
  Journal of Applied Econometrics, 41(5):669–683, 2026
  [Journal, arXiv, Code, Julia package]

Discussion Contributions

• Contribution to the Discussion of ‘Parameterizing and Simulating from Causal Models’ by Evans and Didelez
  Gregor Steiner, Mark Steel
  Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 86(3):580–582, 2024
  [Journal, Code]